USA: Views on abortion becoming less polarised

Public opinion on abortion has taken a gradual turn towards moderation, finds a poll for ABC News/Washington Post. 

The poll, published on 9 March 2007, finds that basic opinions are unchanged from the averages in ABC News/Washington Post polls since 1995, with 56% of Americans saying that abortion should be generally legal and 42% saying it should be generally illegal.

But more now take the middle two positions - that abortion should be legal in most cases, but not all, or illegal in most cases, but not all. Seventy percent take one of those two views, the most ever - 39% on the ‘mostly legal’ side, 31 percent ‘mostly illegal’. That leaves 28% who now take the more extreme positions - that abortion should be legal or illegal in all cases (16% and 12%, respectively) - the fewest ever in ABC/Post polls, down from a high of 43 percent in 2004, and nine points below the long-term average.

The number of Americans who say abortion should be legal in all cases (16%) is down 11 points from its peak of 27 percent in 1995. At the same time, the 12% who say abortion should be flatly illegal is down eight points from its high, 20% in 2001 and 2004. As these have fallen, ‘mostly legal’ and ‘mostly illegal’ responses have risen.

Analysing the poll, Patrick Moynihan and Gary Langer write that the trend towards the middle since 2004 has occurred disproportionately among some groups, including women, evangelical white Protestants and Catholics.

Women and men have essentially the same views on abortion - at the extreme and moderate positions alike - and both have shifted toward the centre. Among women, compared with mid-2004, 19% fewer now take one of the two more extreme positions - that abortion should be legal in all cases (17%, down from 26%) or that it should always be illegal (11%, down from 21%). The change among men has been less pronounced, with 12% fewer taking either more extreme stance. Twelve percent of men say abortion should be illegal in all cases, down from 20%; and 16% say it should be legal in all cases, compared with 20 percent in 2004.

Evangelical white Protestants, the most broadly anti-abortion group, also have moved toward the centre. Fifteen percent now say abortion should be illegal in all cases, down from 31% in 2004. Among Catholics, preference for abortion to be legal in all cases has declined from 26% in 2004 to 10% now - with a corresponding rise in the number who say it should be legal in most cases, but not all.

While partisan differences remain sharp, there is a trend toward moderation on both sides. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to think abortion should be legal in all cases (22% v 9%) or most cases (45% v 30%), while Republicans are almost twice as likely to say abortion should be illegal in most (40% v 21%) or all (18% v 10%) cases. But the 45% of Democrats who now say abortion should be legal in most, not all, cases is up from 35% since mid-2004, and the number of Republicans who say it should be illegal in most but not all cases is now 40%, up from 32%.

Moynihan and Langer explain that no single poll question can capture the complexity of views on abortion, and there’s plenty to explore in what ‘mostly’ legal or illegal should mean. Previous ABC/Post polls have shown that attitudes on abortion are heavily dependent on rationales, with broad support for legal abortion in some instances (eg, when the woman’s life or health are in danger) but majority opposition in others - notably, when abortions are done solely to end an unwanted pregnancy. At the same time, in an ABC/Post poll in 2005, 61% said they wanted to see the Supreme Court uphold Roe v Wade, the decision that established current abortion law. And while 42% wanted the court to make abortions harder to get than they are now, the rest wanted the availability of abortions the same (45 percent) or less restricted (11 percent).

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone in February 2007, among a random national sample of 1,082 adults, including an oversample of black respondents. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

Views on Abortion Grow Less Polarized: analysis by Patrick Moynihan and Gary Langer, ABC News, 9 March 2007

Click here for PDF version with full questionnaire and results.